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Analyzing Australia’s New National Defence Strategy and Deterrence Approach
The Australian government has recently released a new National Defence Strategy (NDS) aligned with the 2023 Defence Strategic Review. This strategy emphasizes a “strategy of denial” as a key pillar of defense planning, focusing on deterrence as a central concept. While deterrence has been mentioned in previous defense white papers, the new NDS aims to provide more specificity and investment in this area.
The NDS outlines a plan for Australia to take greater responsibility for its own security and grow its self-reliant ability to deliver deterrent effects. The strategy includes a significant increase in the defense budget over the next decade, with a focus on investments in maritime, intelligence, logistics, aerial, and land capabilities. Submarines will receive the largest share of the budget, reflecting the importance of maritime defense.
However, there are challenges that the Australian government must address. The pace of introducing new platforms and capabilities may not align with the desired strategic deterrence effect, with major platforms not expected until the 2030s. Additionally, the size of the Australian Defence Force (ADF) may not be large enough to pose a threat to potential adversaries, and recruiting issues are a concern.
The NDS is also considered an orphan document in the national security enterprise, as it lacks alignment with a broader national security strategy. Despite these challenges, the NDS provides a timely update on Australia’s strategic circumstances and outlines improvements in military capabilities that will enhance the country’s deterrence by denial strategy.
Moving forward, the key challenges will be the rapid and disciplined implementation of the NDS and Australia’s ability to adapt to changes in the strategic environment. The improvements in military capabilities will not only strengthen Australia’s defense but also enhance its ability to work closely with regional partners like the United States and Japan.
